Dynatrace, Inc.
DTdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on fileDynatrace, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.28 and $88.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $929.4M1 | $1.16B2 | $1.43B3 | $1.7B3 | $2.02B3 |
| Net income | $52.5M4 | $108M5 | $154.6M6 | $483.7M6 | $162.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $250.9M7 | $354.9M8 | $378.1M9 | $459.4M9 | $561.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $17.7M10 | $21.5M11 | $26.5M12 | $26.1M12 | $32.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $233.2M7 | $333.3M8 | $351.7M9 | $433.3M9 | $529.7M9 |
| Total debt | $547.8M13 | $013 | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $463M14 | $555.3M15 | $779M16 | $1.02B17 | $1.1B17 |
| Diluted shares | 290.9M | 291.6M | 299.3M | 303.6M | 303.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $85.98 of net worth that earned you $5.36 and generated $17.44 of cash last year.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.28 and $88.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$433.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$433.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$154.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $24 |
| Base | 20.0% | $50.13 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $50.13 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-24-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001773383-25-000065 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001773383-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-24-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001773383-25-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001773383-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-24-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001773383-25-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001773383-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-24-000076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001773383-25-000065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001773383-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-23-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001773383-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001773383-24-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001773383-25-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001773383-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)