DIANA SHIPPING INC.

DSXdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

DIANA SHIPPING INC. earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.99 and $12.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$214.2M1$290M2$262.1M3$228.2M3$213.5M3
Net income$57.4M4$119.1M5$49.8M6$12.7M6$17.8M6
Operating cash flow$89.7M7$158.9M8$70.4M9$83.5M9$47.5M9
Capital expenditure$17.4M10$230.3M10$29.7M10
Free cash flow (derived)$72.3M7−$71.4M8$40.6M9
Total debt$847.4M11$1.05B12$1.02B13$1.03B14$1.05B14
Cash & equivalents$110.3M15$76.4M16$101.6M17$124.7M17$50.5M17
Diluted shares84.9M83.3M101.9M118.7M110.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$45.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.61
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$94.63

10 shares is a claim on $45.47 of net worth that earned you $1.61 last year, against $94.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 24%FY23 10%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.99 and $12.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
Earnings Power Value
$4.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$3.75
Base20.0%$2.99
Bull20.0%$2.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000050 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000030 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-23-000136 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)