MeritValue

DESWELL INDUSTRIES INC

DSWLdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

DESWELL INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $5,346.66 and $49,718.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.9M1$86M2$77.3M3$69.4M3$67.6M3
Net income$8.23M4$8.23M5$2.06M6$7.71M6$11.1M6
Operating cash flow$3.3M7−$183,0008$13M9$13.2M9$13.5M9
Capital expenditure$551,00010$1.5M11$792,00012$381,00012$332,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$2.75M7−$1.69M8$12.2M9$12.8M9$13.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.2M13$13.5M14$22.2M15$15.8M16$28.1M16
Diluted shares16.0M16,13516,07215,99915,953

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64,013.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6,981.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$8,275.56
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $64,013.04 of net worth that earned you $6,981.76 and generated $8,275.56 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 10%FY23 3%FY24 10%FY25 15%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5,346.66 and $49,718.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$49,718.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27,978.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8M
Earnings Power Value
$5,346.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.23M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$317.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27,978.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13,251.55
Base20.0%$27,978.39
Bull20.0%$27,978.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000928 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000982 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001174947-25-001096 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000928 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000982 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001174947-25-001096 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000928 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001174947-25-001096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000928 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000982 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001174947-25-001096 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001174947-22-000859 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000928 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001174947-25-001096 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)