DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP INC
DSGXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on fileDESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP INC earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.71 and $134.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $348.7M1 | $424.7M1 | $572.9M2 | $651M2 | $729M2 |
| Net income | $52.1M3 | $86.3M3 | $115.9M4 | $143.3M4 | $163.8M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $131.2M5 | $176.1M5 | $207.7M6 | $219.3M6 | $266.2M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.76M7 | $4.83M7 | $5.56M8 | $6.74M8 | $5.73M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $127.5M5 | $171.3M5 | $202.1M6 | $212.5M6 | $260.5M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $133.7M9 | $213.4M9 | — | $236.1M10 | $356.5M10 |
| Diluted shares | 85.8M | 86.2M | 86.8M | 87.3M | 87.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $184.85 of net worth that earned you $18.7 and generated $29.75 of cash last year.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.71 and $134.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth18.6%
- fcfBase$212.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth18.6%
- fcfBase$212.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$115.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $38.74 |
| Base | 18.6% | $78.95 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $83.19 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 18.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 40-F · period ending 2021-01-31 · accession 0001104659-22-045933 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 40-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026450 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 40-F · period ending 2021-01-31 · accession 0001104659-22-045933 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 40-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026450 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 40-F · period ending 2021-01-31 · accession 0001104659-22-045933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 40-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026450 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 40-F · period ending 2021-01-31 · accession 0001104659-22-045933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 40-F · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026450 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 40-F · period ending 2021-01-31 · accession 0001104659-22-045933 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 40-F · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-026450 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)