MeritValue

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.

DSGRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 360% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.83 and $51.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$520.3M1$1.15B2$1.57B2$1.8B2$1.98B3
Net income−$5.05M4$7.41M5−$8.97M6−$7.33M6$8.35M6
Operating cash flow$10.3M7−$11M8$102.3M9$56.5M9$83.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.03M10$8.31M11$15.3M12$13.7M12$21M12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.29M7−$19.3M8$86.9M9$42.8M9$62.8M9
Total debt$320.7M13$808M14$1.1B15$1.43B16$1.36B16
Cash & equivalents$14.7M17$24.6M18$83.9M19$66.5M19$61.8M19
Diluted shares10.2M35.1M44.9M46.8M47.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$137.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$289.16

10 shares is a claim on $137.67 of net worth that earned you $1.77 and generated $13.32 of cash last year, against $289.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 -0%FY25 0%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+360% shares · 5y

Share count is up 360% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 325% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.83 and $51.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$62.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$62.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$7.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$8.57
Base20.0%$15.83
Bull20.0%$15.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000703604-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000703604-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000703604-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)