MeritValue

Driven Brands Holdings Inc.

DRVNdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.47B1$2.03B2$1.71B3$1.75B3$1.86B3
Net income$9.63M4$43.2M5−$745M5−$292.5M5$140.2M6
Operating cash flow$283.8M7$197.2M8$228.6M9$244M9$330.5M9
Capital expenditure$160.8M10$436.2M11$596.5M12$288.6M12$222.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$123.1M7−$239M8−$367.9M9−$44.7M9$107.8M9
Total debt$4.74B13$5.44B14$5.85B15$5.35B16$4.04B16
Cash & equivalents$523.4M17$150.1M18$132.6M18$103.4M18$102.9M18
Diluted shares164.6M166.7M161.9M161.2M163.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$246.7

10 shares is a claim on $46.82 of net worth that earned you $8.55 and generated $6.58 of cash last year, against $246.7 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 1%FY24 0%FY25 3%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.63M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-27 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001804745-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001804745-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)