MeritValue

DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC

DRIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $91.56 and $147.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$9.63B1$10.5B2$11.4B3$12.1B3$13.2B3
Net income$952.8M4$981.9M5$1.03B6$1.05B6$1.21B6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$1.55B8$1.62B9$1.71B9$1.85B9
Capital expenditure$376.9M10$564.9M11$601.2M12$644.6M12$734M12
Free cash flow (derived)$887.7M7$987.9M8$1.02B9$1.06B9$1.12B9
Total debt$1.8B13$884.9M14$1.46B15$2.13B16$2.33B16
Cash & equivalents$420.6M17$367.8M18$194.8M19$240M19$219.5M19
Diluted shares129.0M122.9M120.8M118.4M116.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$189.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$103.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$96.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$200.46

10 shares is a claim on $189.81 of net worth that earned you $103.76 and generated $96.23 of cash last year, against $200.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY22 28%FY23 38%FY24 29%FY25 25%FY26 28%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 29% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $91.56 and $147.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$147.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.2%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$138.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.2%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
Earnings Power Value
$91.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.03B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $138.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$112.36
Base4.2%$138.61
Bull9.2%$175.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-22-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-25 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-29 · accession 0000940944-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-28 · accession 0000940944-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-26 · accession 0000940944-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)