MeritValue

DAQO NEW ENERGY CORP.

DQdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DAQO NEW ENERGY CORP. earns about 55% on invested capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.68B1$4.61B2$2.31B3$1.03B3$665.4M3
Net income$748.9M4$1.82B5$429.5M6−$345.2M6−$170.5M6
Operating cash flow$639M7$2.46B8$1.62B9−$435.4M9$49.7M9
Capital expenditure$498.5M10$1.21B11$1.11B12$358.8M12$173M12
Free cash flow (derived)$140.5M7$1.26B8$505.3M9−$794.3M9−$123.3M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$723.8M14$3.5B15$3.04B16$1.01B16$856.1M16
Diluted shares383.8M386.5M374.8M330.8M336.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$130.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.06
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $130.86 of net worth that earned you −$5.06 and generated −$3.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
55% avg · 5y
FY21 61%FY22 190%FY23 40%FY24 -11%FY25 -5%

It earned an average 55% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$13.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$429.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-053433 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000968 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-045134 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-053433 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000968 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-045134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-053433 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000968 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-045134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-053433 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000968 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-045134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-000624 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-053433 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000968 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-045134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)