MeritValue

DOMINOS PIZZA INC

DPZdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $157.12 and $221.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.36B1$4.54B2$4.48B3$4.71B3$4.94B3
Net income$510.5M4$452.3M5$519.1M6$584.2M6$601.7M6
Operating cash flow$654.2M7$475.3M8$590.9M9$624.9M9$792.1M9
Capital expenditure$94.2M10$87.2M11$105.4M12$112.9M12$120.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$560M7$388.1M8$485.5M9$512M9$671.5M9
Total debt———$14.8M13$14.7M13
Cash & equivalents$148.2M14$60.4M15$114.1M15$186.1M15$125.7M15
Diluted shares37.7M36.1M35.4M35.0M34.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1,139.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$175.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$196.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.29

10 shares is a claim on −$1,139.43 of net worth that earned you $175.74 and generated $196.13 of cash last year, against $4.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $157.12 and $221.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$208.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$512M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$221.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.5%
  • fcfBase$512M
Earnings Power Value
$157.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$519.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $221.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$216.91
Base0.5%$221.91
Bull5.5%$274.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-019725 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-025223 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-019725 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-025223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-019725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-025223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000950170-24-019725 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000950170-25-025223 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000950170-25-025223 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001193125-26-062321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)