AMDOCS LTD earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.82 and $70.19 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.17B1 | $4.29B2 | $4.58B3 | $4.89B3 | $5B3 |
| Net income | $497.8M4 | $688.4M5 | $549.5M6 | $540.7M6 | $493.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $658.1M7 | $925.8M8 | $756.7M9 | $822.6M9 | $724.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $210.4M10 | $227.2M11 | $124.4M11 | $105.5M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $715.4M8,10 | $529.5M9,11 | $698.3M9,11 | $618.9M9,11 |
| Total debt | $744M12,13 | $644.6M12,13 | $645.1M14 | $645.7M15 | $646.3M15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $983.2M16 | $709.1M17 | $573.4M18 | $520.1M19 | $346.1M19 |
| Diluted shares | 133.2M | 128.0M | 121.9M | 118.5M | 115.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $299.33 of net worth that earned you $42.71 and generated $53.59 of cash last year, against $55.96 of debt.
It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.82 and $70.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a conservative ceiling on what a defensive investor should pay, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth0.0%
- Starting free cash flow$618.9M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth0.0%
- Starting free cash flow$618.9M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$540.7M
- Growth assumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $70.19 |
| Base | 0.0% | $70.19 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $87.69 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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Connect the MeritValue MCP server to Claude or another MCP client, ask about AMDOCS LTD, and get these exact figures with their filing receipts — not an improvised DCF.
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