MeritValue

DOW INC.

DOWdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DOW INC. earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55B1$56.9B2$44.6B3$43B3$40B3
Net income$6.41B4$4.64B5$660M6$1.2B6−$2.44B6
Operating cash flow$7.01B7$7.48B8$5.2B9$2.91B9$1.03B9
Capital expenditure$1.5B10$1.82B11$2.36B12$2.94B12$2.48B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.51B7$5.65B8$2.84B9−$26M9−$1.45B9
Total debt$14.7B13$15.4B13$62M14——
Cash & equivalents$2.99B15$3.89B16$2.99B17$2.19B17$3.82B17
Diluted shares749.0M725.6M709.0M705.1M711.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$34.35
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $224.96 of net worth that earned you −$34.35 and generated −$20.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 16%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 -11%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$17.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.2B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751788-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751788-25-000012 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-26-000018 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751788-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751788-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-23-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001751788-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001751788-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001751788-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)