MeritValue

DOVER Corp

DOVdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DOVER Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $82.28 and $126.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.91B1$7.84B2$7.68B3$7.75B3$8.09B3
Net income$1.12B4$1.07B5$1.06B6$2.7B6$1.09B6
Operating cash flow$1.12B7$805.7M7$1.34B7$1.09B8$1.34B8
Capital expenditure$171.5M9$211.1M10$183.4M11$167.5M11$220.3M11
Free cash flow (derived)$944.4M7$594.6M7$1.15B7$920.3M8$1.12B8
Total debt$6.25B12$8.09B13$6.45B14$6.26B15$7.36B15
Cash & equivalents$385.5M16$380.9M16$398.6M17$1.84B18$1.68B18
Diluted shares145.3M143.6M140.6M138.7M137.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$537.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$81.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$534.39

10 shares is a claim on $537.48 of net worth that earned you $79.4 and generated $81.13 of cash last year, against $534.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 8%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $82.28 and $126.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$126.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$108.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12B
Earnings Power Value
$82.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.09B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$97.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $108.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$74.64
Base6.0%$108.8
Bull11.0%$143.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029905-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029905-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029905-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029905-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000029905-24-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000029905-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000029905-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)