MeritValue

Douglas Elliman Inc.

DOUGdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Douglas Elliman Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.35B1$1.15B2$955.6M3$995.6M3$1.03B3
Net income$98.8M4−$5.62M5−$42.6M6−$76.3M6$15.2M6
Operating cash flow$127.8M7−$14.7M8−$30.4M9−$26M9−$13.9M9
Capital expenditure$4.11M10$8.54M11$6.14M12$5.53M12$3.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$123.7M7−$23.3M8−$36.6M9−$31.5M9−$17.2M9
Total debt$12.7M13$013$014$32.7M15$015
Cash & equivalents$211.6M16$163.9M17$119.8M18$135.7M18$115.5M18
Diluted shares81.6M81.6M82.2M83.5M84.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.8
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $21.74 of net worth that earned you $1.8 and generated −$2.04 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 122%FY22 0%FY23 -41%FY24 -101%FY25 21%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001878897-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001878897-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001878897-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)