MeritValue

Dorman Products, Inc.

DORMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dorman Products, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.32 and $292.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.35B1$1.73B2$1.93B3$2.01B3$2.13B3
Net income$131.5M4$121.5M5$129.3M6$190M6$204.2M6
Operating cash flow$100.3M7$41.7M8$208.8M9$231M9$113.6M9
Capital expenditure$19.8M10$37.9M11$44M12$39.4M12$38M12
Free cash flow (derived)$80.5M7$3.81M8$164.8M9$191.6M9$75.7M9
Total debt$013$495M14$482.9M15$936.4M16$880.5M16
Cash & equivalents$58.8M17$46M18$36.8M19$57.1M20$49.4M20
Diluted shares32.0M31.5M31.5M31.0M30.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$480.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$66.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$286.3

10 shares is a claim on $480.26 of net worth that earned you $66.39 and generated $24.6 of cash last year, against $286.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.32 and $292.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$292.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$164.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$147.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$164.8M
Earnings Power Value
$44.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$131.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $147.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.53
Base20.0%$147.67
Bull20.0%$147.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001628280-23-005712 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001628280-23-005712 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000868780-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000868780-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000868780-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)