MeritValue

Dole plc

DOLEdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dole plc earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.35 and $57.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.94B1$8.02B2$8.25B3$8.48B3$9.17B3
Net income−$7.22M4$86.5M5$124.1M6$125.5M6$51.3M6
Operating cash flow$16.4M7$238.9M7$298.6M8$262.7M8$123.2M8
Capital expenditure$58.6M9$85.6M10$78M11$82.4M11$121.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$42.2M7$153.3M7$220.6M8$180.3M8$1.71M8
Total debt$2.71B12$2.45B13$2.13B14$1.84B15$1.69B15
Cash & equivalents$250.6M16$228.8M17$275.6M18$330M19$267.9M19
Diluted shares72.4M94.9M95.1M95.5M95.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$142.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$175.9

10 shares is a claim on $142.24 of net worth that earned you $5.35 and generated $0.18 of cash last year, against $175.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.35 and $57.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$180.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$180.3M
Earnings Power Value
$9.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.06
Base14.1%$33.8
Bull19.1%$44.4

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857475-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857475-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-23-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857475-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857475-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001857475-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001857475-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857475-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001857475-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)