MeritValue

HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC.

DOCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$471.3M1$494.9M2$527.4M3$568.5M3$604M3
Net income$505.5M4$500.4M5$306M6$243.1M6$71.3M6
Operating cash flow$795.2M7$900.3M8$956.2M9$1.07B9$1.25B9
Capital expenditure$759.7M10$962M11$774.6M12$736.8M12$894.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$35.5M7−$61.7M8$181.7M9$333.7M9$357M9
Total debt$6.17B13$6.5B14$6.88B15$8.72B16$9.85B17
Cash & equivalents$158.3M18$72M18$117.6M18$119.8M19$467.5M19
Diluted shares539.2M539.1M547.3M676.2M696.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$107.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$141.48

10 shares is a claim on $107.75 of net worth that earned you $1.03 and generated $5.13 of cash last year, against $141.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$333.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$333.7M
Earnings Power Value
$4.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$306M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004094 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-002117 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002794 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004094 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-003748 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-005044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)