MeritValue

Krispy Kreme, Inc.

DNUTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Krispy Kreme, Inc. earns about -15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 16% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.38B1$1.53B2$1.69B3$1.67B3$1.52B3
Net income−$24.5M4−$15.6M5−$37.9M6$3.1M6−$515.8M6
Operating cash flow$141.2M7$139.8M8$45.5M9$45.8M9$33.9M9
Capital expenditure$119.5M10$111.7M11$121.4M12$120.8M12$97.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$21.7M7$28.1M8−$75.9M9−$75M9−$64M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$38.6M13$35.4M14$38.2M15$29M15$42.4M15
Diluted shares147.7M167.5M168.3M171.5M170.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.18
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $38.04 of net worth that earned you −$30.18 and generated −$3.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-15% avg · 5y
FY22 -0%FY23 -1%FY23 -3%FY24 1%FY25 -71%

It earned an average -15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 5y

Share count is up 16% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001857154-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001857154-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857154-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001857154-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001857154-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857154-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001857154-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001857154-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857154-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001857154-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001857154-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857154-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001857154-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001857154-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001857154-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)