MeritValue

Denali Therapeutics Inc.

DNLIdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Denali Therapeutics Inc. earns about -32% on equity, but has diluted owners by 42% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.7M1$105.1M2$330.5M3$03$03
Net income−$290.6M4−$326M5−$145.2M6−$422.8M6−$512.5M6
Operating cash flow−$211.4M7−$244.7M8−$358M9−$347.7M9−$412.6M9
Capital expenditure$8.5M10$17.8M11$12.9M12$15.9M12$9.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$219.9M7−$262.5M8−$370.9M9−$363.6M9−$422.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$293.5M13$218M14$127.1M15$175M16$205.3M16
Diluted shares121.5M125.5M137.4M164.5M172.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$58.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$24.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $58.72 of net worth that earned you −$29.69 and generated −$24.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 -30%FY22 -31%FY23 -14%FY24 -34%FY25 -51%

It earned an average -32% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714899-24-000086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714899-25-000066 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714899-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714899-24-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714899-25-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714899-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714899-24-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714899-25-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714899-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714899-24-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714899-25-000066 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714899-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001714899-23-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001714899-24-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001714899-25-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001714899-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)