DELUXE CORP
DLXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileDELUXE CORP earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.4 and $14.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.02B1 | $2.24B2 | $2.19B3 | $2.12B3 | $2.13B3 |
| Net income | $62.6M4 | $65.4M5 | $26.1M6 | $52.8M6 | $82.1M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $210.8M7 | $191.5M8 | $198.4M9 | $194.3M9 | $270.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | $100.7M10 | $94.3M10 | $95.3M10 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | $97.7M9 | $100M9 | $175.3M9 |
| Total debt | $1.68B11 | $1.64B12 | $1.59B13 | $1.5B14 | $1.43B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $41.2M15 | $40.4M16 | $72M17 | $34.4M17 | $36.9M17 |
| Diluted shares | 42.8M | 43.3M | 43.8M | 44.7M | 45.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $149.6 of net worth that earned you $18.04 and generated $38.53 of cash last year, against $314.15 of debt.
It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.4 and $14.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$100M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$100M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$62.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.8 |
| Base | 5.0% | $8.4 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $17.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027996-24-000065 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027996-25-000051 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027996-24-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027996-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027996-24-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027996-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027996-23-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027996-24-000065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-25-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000027996-24-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000027996-25-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000027996-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)