MeritValue

DOLLAR TREE, INC.

DLTRdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DOLLAR TREE, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.22 and $64.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$26.3B1$15.4B2$16.8B3$17.6B3$19.4B3
Net income$1.33B4$1.62B5−$998.4M6−$3.03B6$1.28B6
Operating cash flow$1.43B7$1.61B7$2.68B7$2.19B8$2.19B8
Capital expenditure$1.02B9$639M10$1.19B11$1.3B11$1.13B11
Free cash flow (derived)$410.3M7$975.8M7$1.49B7$892.8M8$1.06B8
Total debt$3.42B12$6.84B13$6.85B14$6.86B15$4.86B15
Cash & equivalents$984.9M16$642.8M17$425.2M18$1.26B19$717.8M19
Diluted shares229.0M224.1M219.9M215.9M206.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$182.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$51.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$235.74

10 shares is a claim on $182.01 of net worth that earned you $62.17 and generated $51.22 of cash last year, against $235.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 13%FY23 10%FY24 9%FY25 11%FY26 16%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.22 and $64.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.7%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.7%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
Earnings Power Value
$64.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.28B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.09
Base2.7%$62.22
Bull7.7%$81.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000935703-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000935703-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000935703-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000935703-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000935703-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000935703-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000935703-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000935703-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)