Dynagas LNG Partners LP

DLNGdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Dynagas LNG Partners LP earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.7 and $15.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$11.6M3$02
Net income$53.3M4$54M5$35.9M6$51.6M6$61.6M6
Operating cash flow$79.6M7$57.3M8$64.4M9$92.2M9$90.3M9
Capital expenditure$010$3.64M11$4.24M12$27,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$79.6M7$53.7M8$60.2M9$92.1M9
Total debt$1.12B13$994.1M14$839.2M15$641.4M16$554.1M16
Cash & equivalents$47M17$48.6M18$73.8M19$68.2M19$41M19
Diluted shares36.5M36.8M36.8M36.8M36.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$129.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.86
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$151.58

10 shares is a claim on $129.45 of net worth that earned you $16.86 last year, against $151.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 13%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 13%

It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.7 and $15.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$60.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$60.2M
Earnings Power Value
$15.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$53.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.47
Base0.0%$9.47
Bull5.0%$15.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052555 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052555 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052555 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-110539 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-110539 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052555 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-052555 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-033744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-040882 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)