DLH Holdings Corp.
DLHCdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileDLH Holdings Corp. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.3 and $38.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $246.1M1 | $395.2M2 | $375.9M3 | $395.9M4 | $344.5M4 |
| Net income | $10.1M5 | $23.3M6 | $1.46M7 | $7.4M8 | $1.36M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $45.7M9 | $1.24M10 | $31M11 | $27.4M12 | $23.2M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $103,00013 | $872,00014 | $625,00015 | $836,00016 | $241,00016 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $45.6M9 | $371,00010 | $30.4M11 | $26.5M12 | $23M12 |
| Total debt | $91.4M17 | $40.8M18 | $344.7M19 | $298.7M20 | $256.1M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $24.1M21 | $228,00022 | $215,00023 | $342,00024 | $125,00024 |
| Diluted shares | 13.6M | 14.2M | 14.4M | 14.4M | 14.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $78.13 of net worth that earned you $0.94 and generated $15.89 of cash last year, against $177.11 of debt.
It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 180% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.3 and $38.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth11.2%
- fcfBase$26.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth11.2%
- fcfBase$26.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$7.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $8.52 |
| Base | 11.2% | $24.47 |
| Bull | 16.2% | $33.86 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 11.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000785557-22-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000785557-23-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000785557-24-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000785557-25-000159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)