MeritValue

DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC.

DKSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, INC. earns about 105% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $94.92 and $127.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$12.3B1$12.4B2$13B3$13.4B3$17.2B3
Net income——$1.05B4$1.17B4$849.2M4
Operating cash flow$1.62B5$921.9M6$1.53B7$1.31B7$1.54B7
Capital expenditure$308.3M8$364.1M9$587.4M10$802.6M10$1.14B10
Free cash flow (derived)$1.31B5$557.8M6$939.9M7$509.3M7$400.2M7
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.64B11$1.92B12$1.8B13$1.69B14$1.35B14
Diluted shares109.6M99.3M85.9M82.9M85.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$650.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$99.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$47
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $650.68 of net worth that earned you $99.74 and generated $47 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
105% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 186%FY24 134%FY25 80%FY26 21%

It earned about 105% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $94.92 and $127.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$94.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$509.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$101.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$509.3M
Earnings Power Value
$127.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.05B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$120.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $101.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$101.35
Base0.0%$101.35
Bull5.0%$122.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001089063-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001089063-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001089063-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001089063-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001089063-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001089063-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001089063-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001089063-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001089063-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001089063-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001089063-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001089063-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001089063-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001089063-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)