AMCON DISTRIBUTING CO
DITdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileAMCON DISTRIBUTING CO earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $154.77 and $194.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.67B1 | $2.01B2 | $2.54B3 | $2.71B4 | $2.82B4 |
| Net income | $15.5M5 | $16.7M6 | $11.6M7 | $4.34M8 | $568,7398 |
| Operating cash flow | $20.9M9 | $22.9M10 | $19.7M11 | $67.9M12 | $18.7M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.53M13 | $14.7M14 | $11.6M15 | $20.4M16 | $9M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $19.4M9 | $8.2M10 | $8.16M11 | $47.4M12 | $9.66M12 |
| Total debt | $11.2M17 | $18M18 | $27.3M19 | $43.5M20 | $33M20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $519,59121 | $431,57622 | $790,93123 | $672,78823 | $744,61323 |
| Diluted shares | 568,103 | 583,062 | 595,850 | 606,782 | 616,486 |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1,834.13 of net worth that earned you $9.23 and generated $156.76 of cash last year, against $535.46 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 194% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $154.77 and $194.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$9.66M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$9.66M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$11.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $171.64 |
| Base | 0.0% | $171.64 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $225.85 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018185 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018185 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018185 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018185 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-018185 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018285 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015063 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-108504 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)