MeritValue

Walt Disney Co

DISdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Walt Disney Co earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18 and $238.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$67.4B1$82.7B2$88.9B3$91.4B3$94.4B3
Net income$2B4$3.15B5$2.35B6$4.97B6$12.4B6
Operating cash flow$5.57B7$6B8$9.87B9$14B9$18.1B9
Capital expenditure$3.58B10$4.94B11$4.97B12$5.41B12$8.02B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.99B7$1.06B8$4.9B9$8.56B9$10.1B9
Total debt$108.8B13$96.7B14$92.9B15$91.6B16$84.1B16
Cash & equivalents$16B17$11.6B18$14.2B19$6B19$5.7B19
Diluted shares1.83B1.83B1.83B1.83B1.81B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$606.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$55.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$464.12

10 shares is a claim on $606.68 of net worth that earned you $68.49 and generated $55.64 of cash last year, against $464.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 5%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18 and $238.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$238.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.56B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$110.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$8.56B
Earnings Power Value
$18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.15B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$96.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $110.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24.26
Base20.0%$110.82
Bull20.0%$110.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-23-000216 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-24-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-23-000216 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-23-000216 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-22-000213 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-23-000216 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0001744489-23-000216 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0001744489-24-000276 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001744489-25-000155 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)