MeritValue

DIODES INC /DEL/

DIODdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DIODES INC /DEL/ earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.37 and $50.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.81B1$2B2$1.66B3$1.31B3$1.48B3
Net income$228.8M4$331.3M5$227.2M6$44M6$66.1M6
Operating cash flow$338.5M7$392.5M8$280.9M9$119.4M9$215.5M9
Capital expenditure$141.2M10$211.7M11$150.8M12$73M12$78.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$197.3M7$180.8M8$130.1M9$46.4M9$137.2M9
Total debt$302.3M13$152M14$25.8M15$21.8M16$27.1M16
Cash & equivalents$363.6M17$336.7M18$315.5M19$308.7M20$367.2M20
Diluted shares45.8M46.0M46.3M46.4M46.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$404.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.84

10 shares is a claim on $404.65 of net worth that earned you $14.25 and generated $29.55 of cash last year, against $5.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 26%FY23 16%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 91% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.37 and $50.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$130.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$47.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$130.1M
Earnings Power Value
$50.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$227.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $47.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$47.39
Base0.0%$47.39
Bull5.0%$57.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002499 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013363 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021400 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-044918 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)