MeritValue

HF Sinclair Corp

DINOdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HF Sinclair Corp earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.18 and $252.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.4B1$38.2B2$32B3$28.6B3$26.9B3
Net income$558.3M4$2.92B5$1.59B6$177M6$579M6
Operating cash flow$406.7M7$3.78B8$2.3B9$1.11B9$1.32B9
Capital expenditure$725.1M10$524M11$385M12$470M12$449M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$318.4M7$3.25B8$1.91B9$640M9$866M9
Total debt$3.07B13$6.53B14$5.49B15$5.28B16$5.54B16
Cash & equivalents$234.4M17$1.67B18$1.35B19$800M20$978M20
Diluted shares162.6M202.6M190.0M192.1M186.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$492.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.44
Debt you’d be carrying
$297

10 shares is a claim on $492.53 of net worth that earned you $31.05 and generated $46.44 of cash last year, against $297 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 23%FY23 13%FY24 1%FY25 4%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 80% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.18 and $252.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$252.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$866M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$126.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$866M
Earnings Power Value
$32.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$579M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $126.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.9
Base20.0%$126.97
Bull20.0%$126.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001915657-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001915657-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001915657-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001915657-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)