MeritValue

Dine Brands Global, Inc.

DINdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dine Brands Global, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $47.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$909.4M1$831.1M2$812.3M2$812.3M1$879.3M2
Net income$81.1M3$97.2M4$64.9M4$64.9M3$17.1M4
Operating cash flow$89.3M5$131.2M6$108.2M6$108.2M5$89M6
Capital expenditure$35.3M7$37.2M8$14.1M8$14.1M7$35.6M8
Free cash flow (derived)$54M5$94M6$94.1M6$94.1M5$53.4M6
Total debt$2.68B9$2.37B10$2.37B11$2.37B10$2.38B11
Cash & equivalents$269.7M12$146M13$186.7M14$186.7M13$128.2M14
Diluted shares15.9M15.2M14.9M14.9M14.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$191.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,661.82

10 shares is a claim on −$191.54 of net worth that earned you $11.96 and generated $37.34 of cash last year, against $1,661.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 3%FY24 3%FY25 1%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$94.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$94.1M
Earnings Power Value
$47.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$64.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007397 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007397 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-010259 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011393 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)