MeritValue

HORTON D R INC /DE/

DHIdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

HORTON D R INC /DE/ earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $158.69 and $641.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.8B1$33.5B2$35.5B3$36.8B3$34.3B3
Net income$4.18B4$5.86B5$4.75B6$4.76B6$3.59B6
Operating cash flow$534.4M7$561.8M8$4.3B9$2.19B9$3.42B9
Capital expenditure$93.5M10$148.2M11$148.6M12$165.3M12$137.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$440.9M7$413.6M8$4.16B9$2.02B9$3.28B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.21B13$2.54B14$3.87B15$4.52B16$2.99B16
Diluted shares365.8M354.8M343.3M331.6M309.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$780.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$115.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$105.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $780.59 of net worth that earned you $115.69 and generated $105.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 36%FY22 35%FY23 25%FY24 23%FY25 17%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $158.69 and $641.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$641.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.28B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$355.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.28B
Earnings Power Value
$158.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.75B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$142.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $355.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$161.02
Base20.0%$355.08
Bull20.0%$355.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000882184-23-000115 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000882184-24-000057 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000882184-25-000081 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000882184-23-000115 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000882184-24-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000882184-25-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000882184-23-000115 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000882184-24-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000882184-25-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000882184-23-000115 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000882184-24-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000882184-25-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000882184-22-000184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000882184-23-000115 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000882184-24-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000882184-25-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)