MeritValue

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP

DGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $77.96 and $114.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$34.2B1$37.8B2$38.7B3$40.6B3$42.7B3
Net income$2.4B4$2.42B5$1.66B6$1.13B6$1.51B6
Operating cash flow$2.87B7$1.98B8$2.39B9$3B9$3.63B9
Capital expenditure$1.07B10$1.56B11$1.7B12$1.31B12$1.24B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.8B7$424M8$691.6M9$1.69B9$2.39B9
Total debt$4.17B13————
Cash & equivalents$344.8M14$381.6M15$537.3M16$932.6M17$1.14B17
Diluted shares235.8M226.3M219.9M220.0M220.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$385.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $385.48 of net worth that earned you $68.49 and generated $108.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY22 25%FY23 50%FY24 31%FY25 17%FY26 21%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $77.96 and $114.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$106.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.69B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$114.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.69B
Earnings Power Value
$77.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.66B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$77.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $114.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$114.26
Base0.0%$114.26
Bull5.0%$140.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-003813 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-003413 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001104659-26-032325 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-003813 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-003413 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001104659-26-032325 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-003813 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-003413 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001104659-26-032325 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-24-003813 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001558370-25-003413 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001104659-26-032325 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-22-003921 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001558370-23-004574 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001558370-24-003813 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001558370-25-003413 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001104659-26-032325 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)