MeritValue

Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc.

DFINdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.95 and $42.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$993.3M1$833.6M2$797.2M3$781.9M3$767M3
Net income$145.9M4$102.5M5$82.2M6$92.4M6$32.4M6
Operating cash flow$180M7$150.2M8$124M9$171.1M9$164.9M9
Capital expenditure$42.3M10$54.2M11$61.8M12$65.9M12$57.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$137.7M7$96M8$62.2M9$105.2M9$107.8M9
Total debt$124M13$169.2M14$124.5M15$249.4M16$342.6M16
Cash & equivalents$54.5M17$34.2M18$23.1M19$57.3M20$24.5M20
Diluted shares35.2M32.3M30.6M30.2M28.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$134.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$121.49

10 shares is a claim on $134.47 of net worth that earned you $11.49 and generated $38.23 of cash last year, against $121.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 37%FY22 24%FY23 19%FY24 16%FY25 6%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 176% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.95 and $42.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$105.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$105.2M
Earnings Power Value
$33.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$92.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.02
Base0.0%$42.02
Bull5.0%$54.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003439 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054586 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)