MeritValue

Dream Finders Homes, Inc.

DFHdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. earns about 54% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $26.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.92B1$3.34B2$3.75B3$4.45B3$4.32B3
Net income$121.1M4$262.3M5$295.9M6$335.3M6$217.2M6
Operating cash flow$65M7−$27.6M8$374.2M9−$256.6M9−$100.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.77M10$5.55M11$4.78M12$25.3M12$25.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62.2M7−$33.2M8$369.5M9−$282M9−$126.4M9
Total debt———$1.29B13$1.61B13
Cash & equivalents$227.2M14$364.5M15$494.1M16$274.4M16$234.8M16
Diluted shares95.3M106.7M106.0M100.3M101.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$158.56

10 shares is a claim on $140.63 of net worth that earned you $21.44 and generated −$12.47 of cash last year, against $158.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
54% avg · 5y
FY21 78%FY22 98%FY23 72%FY24 15%FY25 8%

It earned an average 54% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$26.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$262.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825088-24-000015 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825088-25-000014 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825088-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825088-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825088-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825088-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825088-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825088-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825088-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825088-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010837 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)