MeritValue

Dell Technologies Inc.

DELLdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Dell Technologies Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.09 and $69.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$101.2B1$102.3B2$88.4B3$95.6B3$113.5B3
Net income$5.56B4$2.44B5$3.39B6$4.59B6$5.94B6
Operating cash flow$10.3B7$3.57B8$8.68B9$4.52B9$11.2B9
Capital expenditure$2.8B10$3B11$2.76B12$2.65B12$2.63B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.51B7$562M8$5.92B9$1.87B9$8.55B9
Total debt$53.9B13$59.2B14$52B15$49.1B16$63B16
Cash & equivalents$9.48B17$8.61B18$7.37B19$3.63B20$11.5B20
Diluted shares791.0M753.0M736.0M720.0M684.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$36.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$86.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$125.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$921.14

10 shares is a claim on −$36.11 of net worth that earned you $86.78 and generated $125.03 of cash last year, against $921.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY23 7%FY24 11%FY25 10%FY26 12%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.09 and $69.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.92B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.92B
Earnings Power Value
$69.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.59B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.4
Base0.0%$48.4
Bull5.0%$78.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-28 · accession 0001571996-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-02-03 · accession 0001571996-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-02 · accession 0001571996-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001571996-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)