MeritValue

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP

DECKdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP earns about 35% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 425% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.98 and $405.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.15B1$3.63B2$4.29B3$4.99B3$5.47B3
Net income$451.9M4$516.8M5$759.6M6$966.1M6$1.02B6
Operating cash flow$172.4M7$537.4M8$1.03B9$1.04B9$1.18B9
Capital expenditure$51M10$81M11$89.4M12$86.2M12$84.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$121.3M7$456.4M8$943.8M9$958.4M9$1.1B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$843.5M13$981.8M14$1.5B15$1.89B16$1.91B16
Diluted shares27.8M160.1M156.3M152.7M145.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$171.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$70.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$75.26
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $171.44 of net worth that earned you $70.24 and generated $75.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
35% avg · 5y
FY22 29%FY23 29%FY24 36%FY25 38%FY26 41%

It earned about 35% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+425% shares · 5y

Share count is up 425% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.98 and $405.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$405.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$958.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$227.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$958.4M
Earnings Power Value
$53.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$759.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $227.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$106.99
Base20.0%$227.38
Bull20.0%$227.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000910521-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000910521-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-037664 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000910521-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000910521-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-037664 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000910521-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000910521-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-037664 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000910521-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000910521-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-037664 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0000910521-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000910521-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000910521-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-037664 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)