MeritValue

DEERE & CO

DEdata completeness 100%21 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DEERE & CO earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $270.8 and $388.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$44B1$52.6B2$61.3B3$51.7B3$45.7B3
Net income$5.96B4$7.13B5$10.2B6$7.1B6$5.03B6
Operating cash flow$7.73B7$4.7B8$8.59B9$9.23B9$7.46B9
Capital expenditure$848M10$1.13B11$1.5B12$1.64B12$1.36B12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.88B7$3.57B8$7.09B9$7.59B9$6.1B9
Total debt$43.8B13$12.6B14$17.9B15$13.5B16$13.8B16
Cash & equivalents$8.02B17$4.77B18$7.46B19$7.32B19$8.28B19
Diluted shares314.0M306.3M293.6M277.1M271.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$955.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$185.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$224.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$507.77

10 shares is a claim on $955.1 of net worth that earned you $185.02 and generated $224.48 of cash last year, against $507.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 28%FY23 37%FY24 33%FY25 24%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 69% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $270.8 and $388.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$383.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.1%
  • fcfBase$7.09B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$388.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.1%
  • fcfBase$7.09B
Earnings Power Value
$270.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$199.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $388.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$352.57
Base2.1%$388.42
Bull7.1%$485.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-21-016864 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-27 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001558370-23-019812 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-29 · accession 0001104659-25-122321 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)