MeritValue

DILLARD'S, INC.

DDSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DILLARD'S, INC. earns about 84% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $489,073.5 and $624,188.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$6.49B1$6.87B2$6.75B3$6.48B3$6.47B3
Net income$862.5M4$891.6M5$738.8M6$593.5M6$570.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.28B7$948.4M8$883.6M9$714.1M9$717M9
Capital expenditure$104.4M10$120.1M11$132.9M12$104.6M12$93.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.18B7$828.3M8$750.6M9$609.6M9$623.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$716.8M13$650.3M14$808.3M15$717.9M16$861.5M16
Diluted shares20,59217,54916,51716,12015,655

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.14M
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$364,220.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$398,355.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.14M of net worth that earned you $364,220.38 and generated $398,355.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
84% avg · 5y
FY22 122%FY23 97%FY24 83%FY25 55%FY26 62%

It earned about 84% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $489,073.5 and $624,188.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$581,334.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$623.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$624,188.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$623.6M
Earnings Power Value
$489,073.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$738.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9,649.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $624,188.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$624,188.7
Base0.0%$624,188.7
Bull5.0%$761,952.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000028917-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000028917-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000028917-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000028917-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000028917-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000028917-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000028917-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000028917-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000028917-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000028917-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000028917-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000028917-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000028917-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000028917-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000028917-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000028917-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)