MeritValue

Datadog, Inc.

DDOGdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Datadog, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.38 and $138.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.03B1$1.68B2$2.13B3$2.68B3$3.43B3
Net income−$20.7M4−$50.2M5$48.6M6$183.7M6$107.7M6
Operating cash flow$286.5M7$418.4M8$660M9$870.6M9$1.05B9
Capital expenditure$9.96M10$35.3M11$27.6M12$34.7M12$49.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$276.6M7$383.1M8$632.4M9$835.9M9$1B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$271M13$339M14$330.3M14$1.25B15$401.3M15
Diluted shares309.0M315.4M350.3M358.6M363.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$102.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $102.68 of net worth that earned you $2.96 and generated $27.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 -2%FY23 3%FY24 13%FY25 3%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.38 and $138.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$138.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$835.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$76.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$835.9M
Earnings Power Value
$1.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $76.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.96
Base20.0%$76.08
Bull20.0%$76.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561550-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561550-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561550-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561550-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561550-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561550-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561550-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561550-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561550-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561550-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008819 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)