MeritValue

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd.

DDIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $421.94 and $2,032.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$363.2M1$321M1$308.9M1$341.3M2$359.9M2
Net income$78.1M3−$234M3$100.9M3$124.1M4$102.5M4
Operating cash flow$96.1M5$50.8M5$20.8M5$148.4M6$136.8M6
Capital expenditure$207,0007$269,0007$198,0007$867,0008$190,0008
Free cash flow (derived)$95.9M5$50.5M5$20.6M5$147.6M6$136.6M6
Total debt$84.4M9$78.9M10$77.6M10——
Cash & equivalents$242.1M11$217.4M12$206.9M12$334.9M13$388.9M13
Diluted shares2.3M2.5M2.5M2.5M2.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3,835.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$413.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$551.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3,835.04 of net worth that earned you $413.69 and generated $551.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 -49%FY23 17%FY24 25%FY25 18%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $421.94 and $2,032.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2,032.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$136.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,493.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$136.6M
Earnings Power Value
$421.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$100.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$597.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,493.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$944.56
Base12.5%$1,493.66
Bull17.5%$1,788.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022395 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022395 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022395 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022395 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080583 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-022395 (CashAndCashEquivalents)