MeritValue

DuPont de Nemours, Inc.

DDdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.55 and $17.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.6B1$13B2$6.61B3$6.72B3$6.85B3
Net income$6.47B4$5.87B5$423M6$703M6−$779M6
Operating cash flow$2.28B7$588M7$845M8$765M8$560M8
Capital expenditure$788M9$662M10$302M11$285M11$333M11
Free cash flow (derived)$1.49B7−$74M7$543M8$480M8$227M8
Total debt$10.9B12$8.45B13$7.86B13$3.7B14$120M14
Cash & equivalents$1.97B15$3.66B16$2.39B17$1.79B18$715M18
Diluted shares544.2M499.4M449.9M419.2M419.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$332.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.86

10 shares is a claim on $332.04 of net worth that earned you −$18.58 and generated $5.42 of cash last year, against $2.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 -1%FY24 0%FY25 1%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.55 and $17.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$480M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$480M
Earnings Power Value
$17.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$703M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.78
Base0.0%$17.78
Bull5.0%$21.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666700-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666700-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-23-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666700-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666700-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001666700-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001666700-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001666700-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001666700-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)