MeritValue

DUCOMMUN INC /DE/

DCOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DUCOMMUN INC /DE/ earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.7 and $15.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$645.4M1$712.5M2$757M3$786.4M3$824.8M3
Net income$135.5M4$28.8M5$15.9M6$21.7M6−$37.4M6
Operating cash flow−$565,0007$32.7M8$31.1M9$34.2M9−$33.4M9
Capital expenditure$16.9M10$19.7M11$19.5M12$14.1M12$15.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$17.4M7$13M8$11.5M9$20.1M9−$48.6M9
Total debt$567.1M13$489M14$522.9M15$473M16$603.8M16
Cash & equivalents$76.3M17$46.2M18$42.9M19$37.1M20$45.3M20
Diluted shares12.3M12.4M14.0M15.0M14.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$442.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$404.09

10 shares is a claim on $442.7 of net worth that earned you −$25 and generated −$32.55 of cash last year, against $404.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 2%FY23 -0%FY24 2%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.7 and $15.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$11.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$11.5M
Earnings Power Value
$15.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003810 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003810 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006363 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008401 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-032536 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)