MeritValue

DONALDSON Co INC

DCIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DONALDSON Co INC earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.88 and $142.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.85B1$3.31B2$3.43B3$3.59B3$3.69B3
Net income$286.9M4$332.8M5$358.8M6$414M6$367M6
Operating cash flow$401.9M7$252.8M8$544.5M9$492.5M9$418.8M9
Capital expenditure$59M10$85.5M11$118.5M12$85.6M12$78.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$342.9M7$167.3M8$426M9$406.9M9$339.9M9
Total debt$511.8M13$650.4M14$657.5M15$538.3M16$671.2M17
Cash & equivalents$222.8M18$193.3M19$187.1M20$232.7M21$180.4M21
Diluted shares128.2M125.2M123.6M122.6M120.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$120.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$55.75

10 shares is a claim on $120.72 of net worth that earned you $30.48 and generated $28.23 of cash last year, against $55.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 22%FY23 21%FY24 23%FY25 19%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.88 and $142.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$142.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$406.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$89.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.7%
  • fcfBase$406.9M
Earnings Power Value
$30.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$358.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $89.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.21
Base15.7%$89.12
Bull20.0%$106.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-21-000029 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-22-000089 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000029644-22-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000029644-23-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0000029644-24-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0000029644-25-000098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)