Dauch Corp
DCHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileThe thesis, from the filings
Dauch Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.16B1 | $5.8B2 | $6.08B3 | $6.12B3 | $5.84B3 |
| Net income | $5.9M4 | $64.3M5 | −$33.6M6 | $35M6 | −$19.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $538.4M7 | $448.9M8 | $396.1M9 | $455.4M9 | $411.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $181.2M10 | $171.4M11 | $194.6M12 | $248M12 | $256.5M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $357.2M7 | $277.5M8 | $201.5M9 | $207.4M9 | $155.1M9 |
| Total debt | $6.22B13 | $5.82B14 | $5.56B15 | $5.24B16 | $8.13B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $530.2M17 | $511.5M18 | $519.9M19 | $552.9M20 | $708.9M20 |
| Diluted shares | 114.1M | 115.5M | 116.6M | 117.7M | 118.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$686.83
10 shares is a claim on $54.05 of net worth that earned you −$1.66 and generated $13.1 of cash last year, against $686.83 of debt.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 2%FY24 3%FY25 1%
It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y
Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$201.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$201.5M
Earnings Power Value
$0.52
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$5.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062231-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001062231-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001062231-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001062231-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)