MeritValue

DocGo Inc.

DCGOdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DocGo Inc. earns about -17% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.09 and $6.32 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$318.7M1$440.5M2$624.3M3$616.6M3$322.2M3
Net income$23.7M4$34.6M4$6.86M5$20M5−$182.4M5
Operating cash flow−$1.95M6$28.9M7−$64.5M8$70.1M8$34.5M8
Capital expenditure$4.81M9$3.2M10$7.31M11$3.61M11$4.54M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.76M6$25.7M7−$71.8M8$66.5M8$29.9M8
Total debt$600,44912$664,91313$139,43414$35,46015$471,16616
Cash & equivalents$175.5M17$157.3M18$59.3M19$89.2M19$51M19
Diluted shares94.9M103.0M105.6M109.4M99.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.05

10 shares is a claim on $14.54 of net worth that earned you −$18.41 and generated $3.02 of cash last year, against $0.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-17% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 20%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 -158%

It earned about -17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.09 and $6.32 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29.9M
Earnings Power Value
$2.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.82
Base5.0%$5.87
Bull10.0%$7.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822359-24-000016 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822359-25-000018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019936 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822359-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822359-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822359-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822359-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-012545 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019936 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001822359-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001822359-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001822359-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001822359-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018214 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)