MeritValue

DROPBOX, INC.

DBXdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $17.23 and $75.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.16B1$2.32B2$2.5B3$2.55B3$2.52B3
Net income$335.8M4$553.2M5$453.6M6$452.3M6$508.4M6
Operating cash flow$729.8M7$797.3M8$783.7M9$894.1M9$951.8M9
Capital expenditure$22.1M10$33.8M11$24.3M12$22.5M12$21M12
Free cash flow (derived)$707.7M7$763.5M8$759.4M9$871.6M9$930.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$533M13$232.8M14$614.9M15$1.33B15$891.3M15
Diluted shares395.8M363.3M345.6M323.4M272.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$65.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$65.88 of net worth that earned you $18.64 and generated $34.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−31% shares · 5y

Share count is down 31% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.23 and $75.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.2%
  • fcfBase$871.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$65.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.2%
  • fcfBase$871.6M
Earnings Power Value
$17.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$453.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $65.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$48.92
Base7.2%$65.47
Bull12.2%$79.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467623-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467623-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467623-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467623-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467623-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467623-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467623-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467623-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467623-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467623-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467623-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467623-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467623-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467623-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467623-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)