MeritValue

Invesco DB Oil Fund

DBOdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Invesco DB Oil Fund earns about 14% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$158,6701$5.44M2$13.3M3$11.9M3$8.5M3
Net income$228.7M4$77.3M5−$14.2M6$19.6M6−$19.4M6
Operating cash flow$224.8M7$208.3M8$44.8M9$53M9−$13.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$010$011$011$1.04M11$011
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 5y
FY21 53%FY22 25%FY23 -6%FY24 9%FY25 -10%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019057 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027272 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083549 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027272 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027272 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027272 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083549 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)