MeritValue

Designer Brands Inc.

DBIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Designer Brands Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 36% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.13 and $14.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.2B1$3.32B2$3.07B3$3.01B3$2.89B3
Net income$154.5M4$162.7M5$29.1M6−$10.5M6−$8.37M6
Operating cash flow$171.4M7$201.4M8$162.4M9$82.2M9$109.9M9
Capital expenditure$33M10$55M11$55M12$50.9M12$31.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$138.4M7$146.5M8$107.4M9$31.3M9$78.3M9
Total debt$225.5M13$281M14$427.1M15$491M16$435M16
Cash & equivalents$72.7M17$58.8M17$49.2M18$44.8M19$50.9M19
Diluted shares77.3M72.1M63.4M53.7M49.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$88.52

10 shares is a claim on $57.49 of net worth that earned you −$1.7 and generated $15.93 of cash last year, against $88.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY22 32%FY23 27%FY24 7%FY25 -1%FY26 0%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−36% shares · 5y

Share count is down 36% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 93% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.13 and $14.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$78.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$78.3M
Earnings Power Value
$6.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.94
Base0.0%$14.94
Bull5.0%$20.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-22-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001319947-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001319947-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001319947-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)