MeritValue

DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc

DBDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc earns about -4% on invested capital, and has bought back 52% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.9B1$3.91B2$3.46B3$3.75B4$3.81B4
Net income−$269.1M5−$78.8M6−$581.4M7−$16.5M8$94.6M8
Operating cash flow$18M9$123.3M10−$387.9M11$149.2M12$300.7M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt——$2.56B13$1.85B14$1.88B14
Cash & equivalents$324.5M15$388.9M16$307.4M17$296.2M18$368.9M18
Diluted shares77.6M78.3M79.0M37.6M37.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.43
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$504.57

10 shares is a claim on $295.67 of net worth that earned you $25.43 last year, against $504.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 —FY22 -22%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−52% shares · 5y

Share count is down 52% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$41.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000028823-23-000078 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000028823-24-000025 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000028823-25-000022 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000028823-26-000008 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000028823-23-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000028823-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000028823-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000028823-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000028823-23-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000028823-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000028823-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000028823-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000028823-24-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000028823-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000028823-24-000025 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000028823-25-000022 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000028823-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000028823-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)