MeritValue

INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND

DBBdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND earns about 1% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$110,6561$5.85M2$11M3$6.88M3$4.97M3
Net income$80.6M4−$66M5−$6.03M6$7.48M6$30.6M6
Operating cash flow−$232.8M7$196.9M8$96.3M9$16.7M9−$55.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$010$1.96M11$011$011$3.46M11
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
1% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 -29%FY23 -5%FY24 7%FY25 15%

It earned an average 1% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019050 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027245 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083547 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027245 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083547 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027245 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083547 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027245 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-083547 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)