MeritValue

DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

DBdata completeness 38%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT earns about 8% on equity, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €21.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€25.5B1€27.1B2€31.2B3€31.5B3€31.4B3
Net income€2.45B4€5.42B4€6.33B4——
Operating cash flow−€2.95B5−€2.11B5€5.61B5——
Capital expenditure€550M6€337M6€422M6——
Free cash flow (derived)−€3.5B5−€2.45B5€5.18B5——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€179.9B7€165.6B7€163.8B7——
Diluted shares2.07B2.04B1.99B1.95B1.90B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€432.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
—
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €432.43 of net worth.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
€21.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€3.94B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001159508-24-000021 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001159508-25-000020 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001159508-26-000017 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001159508-24-000021 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001159508-24-000021 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001159508-24-000021 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001159508-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalents)