DoorDash, Inc.

DASHdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

DoorDash, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $160.34 and $285.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.89B1$6.58B2$8.64B3$10.7B3$13.7B3
Net income−$468M4−$1.37B5−$558M6$123M6$935M6
Operating cash flow$692M7$367M8$1.67B9$2.13B9$2.43B9
Capital expenditure$129M10$176M11$123M12$104M12$257M12
Free cash flow (derived)$563M7$191M8$1.55B9$2.03B9$2.17B9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$2.5B13$1.98B14$2.66B15$4.02B15$4.38B15
Diluted shares336.8M371.4M392.9M430.2M439.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$228.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.44
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $228.19 of net worth that earned you $21.27 and generated $49.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -23%FY23 -10%FY24 3%FY25 16%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $160.34 and $285.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$285.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.03B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$160.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.03B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$33.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $160.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.86
Base20.0%$160.34
Bull20.0%$160.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005600 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005715 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001792789-26-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005600 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005715 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001792789-26-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005600 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005715 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001792789-26-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005600 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005715 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001792789-26-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005600 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005715 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001792789-26-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)